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11 predictions for diamonds in 2011
1. Nobody will find a major new diamond mine. Of course we might be wrong about this, but the odds are that we're right thanks to the law of averages: nobody has discovered a really significant diamond mine for many years now - nothing in the 21st Century - and it's therefore highly unlikely that diamond explorers will hit the jackpot in 2011. But the lack of significant new discoveries doesn't mean that new diamond sources won't come on stream in the next 12 months, notably Lucara Diamond Corp's AK6 project in Botswana, expected to start production in late 2011 or early 2012.
2. Miners will find some big diamonds. They might not find any big new mines, but they always seem to unearth a few conkers from existing mines, and whilst big companies like De Beers can secretly hang onto a large diamond for months or even years waiting for the right marketing opportunity, the smaller diamond producers usually want to make a big noise about big stones because of the cash that such a find can generate and the good feeling that it gives to investors in the business - it's great PR, basically. So look out for more of this sort of thing: Petra Diamonds' 507 carat diamond from Cullinan in South Africa, and Gem Diamonds' 196ct & 185ct pair of gems from Letšeng in Lesotho. Nobody can know the details yet, but it's a safe bet that some exceptional diamonds will finally emerge from their billion year hibernation in 2011.
3. Exceptional diamonds will sell for exceptional prices. The miners will dig up some special rough diamonds, but it's the polished gems which will achieve the loftiest prices in 2011, continuing the recession-defying trend seen in 2010 (see here and here for two pinks, and here for a vivid blue, all of which sold at auction in 2010 for more than $1 million per carat). We'll see more record prices in 2011, including $2 million per carat for exceptional gems, typically for the rarest 'fancy' colours such as pinks, reds, and blues. And many of the millions being paid for such diamonds will come from the Far East, notably Hong Kong/China.
4. Watching De Beers will be fun. The world's number 1 name in diamonds has had a fairly quiet couple of years since it got smacked by the financial crisis, but De Beers will once again be an interesting business to watch in 2011. For one thing, it will gain a new CEO. We don't yet know who that will be, but previous boss Gareth Penny announced his departure last July so a replacement really ought to be in place before too long - keep an eye on the 2010 results announcement in February for an update. Those results will impress, with De Beers likely to post numbers that are back - or very nearly back - to pre-recession levels. A new CEO could take the company back to to its roots as a pure diamond miner & distributor (especially if he/she is parachuted in from key shareholder Anglo-American), or alternatively might look to develop the Group's downstream and related businesses, i.e. De Beers Diamond Jewellers (the high-end retail joint-venture with LVMH), Forevermark (the Group's diamond brand, currently available in Asia but reported to be planning its long-awaited entry to the US market), and Element6 (the De Beers' business which develops & sells industrial diamond materials). Industry-insiders will spend much of 2011 obsessing about how De Beers chooses its rough diamond clients - a process it hasn't been through since 2007 - and how it sells its rough diamonds to those clients (more via auctions?).
5. Lots more people will hear about synthetic 'diamonds' (and some people will buy them). This story has been waiting to happen for a number of years now, and 2011 might just be the year when it moves forward at pace. We're not even supposed to call them diamonds, but make no mistake: we're not talking about simulants like Moissanite or cubic zirconium (CZ) - things that just look (a bit) like diamonds. Synthetics are crystallised carbon, just like the gems that diamond miners dig out of the ground, but grown in a laboratory. They have essentially the same physical & optical properties as diamonds so they look exactly like 'the real thing' when set into jewellery, and special equipment is needed to detect them. So what's new? Well, one of the companies that 'grows' synthetics recently announced that it was ramping up production of colourless gems and would sell them through the Internet in the US & Canada. Their website currently offers only a coy signpost coming attractions:
Much will depend on pricing and marketing of synthetics - consumers may not easily be persuaded to switch from the romance of the billion-year old natural product to something that was grown in a laboratory just weeks ago, but if they get the pricing and positioning just right, then these synthetics could become very popular. They might be helped along by ethical issues (perceived or real) with mined diamonds - political, human rights, environmental, etc (see point 9 below; the producers of synthetics already point to their 'clean', non-conflict credentials).
Finally on synthetics, a couple of wild-card predictions for 2011: Firstly, De Beers, under new leadership and via their ambitious Element6 business, could finally enter the gem synthetics market on the basis that if you can't beat 'em, join 'em (and if the positioning of synthetics versus natural is all-important, then who better to lead that positioning than the daddy of all diamond marketers - De Beers? Note also point 1 above: no new diamond mines, demand exceeds supply… why miss out on this as an opportunity for growth?). Also, look out for celebrity endorsement of synthetics in 2011, for example at the Oscars, and for that endorsement to make reference to those ethical issues re. the natural product (Zimbabwe?). Whatever happens, we expect to be updating this story once or twice during the year ahead.
6. The Royal Wedding will trigger an avalanche of coverage & commentary on bridal customs, including jewellery. We're really sticking our neck out here: April's Royal Wedding will generate lots of coverage: shock! But seriously, you can be sure that hundreds of journalists & bloggers will look for an angle on the story, and almost every bridal and jewellery business, and many others besides, will try to find a way to promote their products & services with some spurious connection to the blue-blooded nuptials. It's already happening of course, especially with regard to engagement rings because that story has already been & gone, but it'll come around again, and there will be host of other stories about the diamonds and jewellery being worn on the Big Day by the bride, The Queen, Camilla, etc… And yes, we'll probably join in.
7. There'll be some diamond anniversaries in 2011. Well, that's not much of a prediction - of course there will be some diamond anniversaries this year - and we're cheating a little bit because we're really looking ahead to 2012, but we know that 2011 will begin the long run in to the Queen's Diamond Jubilee in 2012 (coupled, rather neatly, with the London Olympics). And in a way this has already begun with the release of the Oscar-tipped film: The King's Speech, about King George VI whose death led to the accession of QEII in 1952. So 2012 will be the really big year for diamond anniversary happenings, but we reckon that 2011 will be a worthy warm-up act for the main events next year.
8. People will cover consumer objects with diamonds. We know this about 2011 because it happens every year. No sooner has some cutting edge consumer product been launched than somebody decides that what the world really needs is a lux version, and the lazy shorthand for lux is to plaster an object with diamonds and/or gold. We hoped that this sort of showy bling-up veneering had been consigned to history by the global financial meltdown of the last two years, that luxury had evolved to become more subtle and experiential, that people had more taste and discretion these days, that fashion had moved on, but it seems we were wrong because 2010 saw another outbreak of ill-advised novelty diamond encrustation (diamond iPhone, diamond iPad, diamond football) and we expect 2011 to provide more of the same. Oh dear. But let's hope somebody can do something truly original and exceptional with diamonds in 2011, like this.
9. Diamonds will have 'issues'. Diamonds are expensive and emotive objects, and for that reason (among others) they can attract the wrong sort of attention, especially when they're found in parts of the world where democracy and the rule of law are weak, where diamonds become embroiled in corruption & smuggling, exploitation & human rights abuse, violence, even war. And so it was in Sierra Leone and Angola and DR Congo (Zaire) in the past, and Zimbabwe in the present, and who-knows-where in the future. In 2011 the festering wound of Zimbabwe is unlikely to heal, a fact that will continue to hurt the diamond industry, the image of diamonds, and, more importantly, many Zimbabweans. The tragedy of Zimbabwe is made worse by the fact that it's home to one of the world's most highly prospective diamond deposits at Marange.
Look out too for diamonds to have issues in 2011 as a result of unrest in the Ivory Coast ('the world's biggest remaining source of conflict diamonds' according to this recent report), environmental issues (the environmental cost of mining in some very remote and beautiful places such as the Arctic, the ocean, the desert…), and lastly in connection with the San bushmen in the Kalahari (a taste of this can be found here).
10. Trust in (some) diamond certificates will diminish. This is a long-running story within the diamond industry but has yet to make much impact in consumers' consciousness. We're not suggesting that there will be a seismic breach in confidence in diamond certificates in 2011 (although that is possible), just that trust will be chipped away in an incremental way, bit by little bit. We think that consumers will become frustrated with the inability of most diamond certificates to tell them anything about where their diamond came from or the journey that their diamond took from mine to finger. We think that consumers will read about synthetics and diamond treatments and may not believe that their diamond certificate is a reliable guard against non-natural status (that's a bit unfair on the diamond labs, but hey, perceptions matter). We think that consumers will continue to be confused by the variety of available diamond certificates, and by the plethora of competing standards and impenetrable jargon that they use. And we think that occasional news of alleged corruption in diamond labs might break out of the industry press and make it into the consumer press, possibly doing considerable damage to confidence in diamonds and their certification.
Why are we telling you this if it puts the diamond industry in a bad light? Well, this is a Blog about diamonds and we want to bring you news & views from the world of diamonds, even if sometimes those are ugly stories rather than warm fuzzy cuddly ones. That way you can make your own mind up. Buy a diamond, or don't, it's your call; we just want to help you to make informed decisions about diamonds in 2011.
11. People will discover new ways to enjoy diamonds. OK, this is the plug for Diamondthrills, but it's also a more general point. We think that the experience of luxury continues to evolve on a trajectory that shifted about two years ago when the financial crisis hit. Acquisition is still important for most people and many occasions, but we've learnt over the last 18 months that there is also a market for the experience of fine diamond jewellery: just being adorned by it; you don't always have to own it to enjoy it. And this seems to fit with a more general trend towards sharing of assets, fractional ownership and 'convenience renting': see also Zipcar, Fractional Life, the London Bike Hire scheme, INeedtoPark (short term car parking space rental), CamShare (a car & bike share scheme in Cambridge), and WhipCar (borrow your neighbour's car, basically).
So we reckon we're 'on trend' and we expect to see growth in our business in 2011, plus we've got some great ideas about how to expand and bring new services (and new jewellery) to our customers. Last word to a great article on trends for 2011 which we found just this week: "for many consumers, access is better than ownership".
That's it! That's how we think 2011 will shape up in the world of diamonds and we look forward to bringing you lots of news & views during the year. Watch this space to see how accurate our predictions turn out to be…
About the Author
Jamie Mordaunt writes for Diamondthrills. Hire diamond jewellery to look & feel fabulous at your wedding, party, or other special event. Renting fine jewellery is the smart new way to adorn yourself in dazzling diamonds for a fraction of the cost of ownership. Your flexible & affordable jewellery box for special occasions.
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