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With Friends Like Wall Street Analysts and Washington Politicians, Who Needs Enemies?

Friday's jobs report was such a bad miss its incomprehensible that none of the analysts I follow felt compelled to explain it. I found plenty of discussion of the ISM data, some comments on existing home sales, and merely one off the cuff remark suggesting that unemployment rates above 8% should cause core inflation to decline for perhaps the next two years as some consolation prize.

I'm going to share a very dark truth with you today that Washington has not yet shown it understands. The economy can't produce jobs because the actions of congress are preventing the free market from restructuring a seriously out of balance economy. Difficult mandates, red tape, and a maligned and uncertain tax structure are resulting in private investment being displaced by government borrowing. Worse still is that Washington continues to pursue the same failed policies.

Who among us thinks another round of stimulus, aimed at the wrong target will do anything other than increase deficits and further discourage private investment and business formation so necessary to produce the jobs we seek? Next on the Washington agenda will be the extension of unemployment benefits already extended to 99 weeks. Politicians hold firm that continuing to give money to the unemployed creates jobs where the unemployed choose to spend their benefits. If this thinking were accurate we would currently be experiencing an improving jobs picture.

Washington is hard at work creating a currency crisis that along with the worsening sovereign debt problems could easily create the most severe economic catastrophe in modern economic history, while Wall Street analysts placate investors with promises of economic growth and higher stock prices. Stocks today may well offer the single worst risk to return relationship of the seven major asset classes. Many luminary economists are making similar calls like Jeremy Grantham did recently who said,  "The Fed is driving the S&P [500], which is overpriced … driving it from already substantially overpriced into what I would call dangerously overpriced," Grantham told CNBC in a lengthy interview. "It wants us to go out there and buy stocks, which are overpriced because bonds they have manipulated into being even less attractive. So, we're being forced to choose between two overpriced assets. "

Perhaps one of the reasons investors have so much disdain for Wall Street is the knowledge that regardless of how things turn out for the investor Wall Street will always come out on top. And that happens even if it means testifying that it was pure luck that Wall Street firms offloaded the failed investments at what in retrospect appears to have been just before the wheels fell off.

To level the playing field investors must ditch their love affair with Modern Portfolio Theory and its reliance on long only positions in only three asset classes. Wall Street holds investors captive because investors incorrectly believe that Wall Street holds the key to their investment success with its economic forecasts often skewed to produce the desired behavior on the part of the investor.

Free yourself from the conflicts of interest by focusing on the relationships between asset classes in terms of risks and opportunity. Embrace a tactical and directional approach to investing and do not allow yourself to be sucked back in, with feelings of "I am missing out" if stocks go up, while Wall Street is cheering. If you feel the need for reassurance please look at "insider selling" which happens to be at record levels. The overwhelming volume of sell transactions relative to buy transactions by company insiders over the last six months in key leading sectors of the market is the worst it has ever been since they began tracking the data. While it is true that there are many reasons why insiders sell, it is irrefutable that there is only one reason that they buy!

Ask yourself who knows more about the risks and opportunities of a company – the cheering analysts paid for investment banking, or the executives with their sleeves rolled up afraid to hire more employees to help meet the demand Wall Street assures us is right around the corner.

Be well,

Art

www.alphafiduciary.com

About the Author

As President of Alpha Fiduciary generational wealth management, Art has assembled a team of top tier people at Alpha Fiduciary to execute on its mission of helping clients achieve their optimum financial life through prudent planning and the deployment of its Global Tactical Multi Asset Class Strategies.

Arthur is an industry veteran with more than 20 years experience working with high net worth clients. He has an extensive background in wealth management with particular expertise in portfolio management. Prior to establishing Alpha Fiduciary, Art was a Senior Vice President with Merrill Lynch where prior to leaving in November, 2006 had built his practice to be the largest of Merrill Lynch's Arizona territory.

Arthur founded Alpha Fiduciary which serves its clients as a fee only Registered Investment Advisor (RIA). Alpha Fiduciary has responsibility to the client, i.e. we only serve one master!

In cooperation with some of the most successful institutional investors in the world, Arthur pioneered the development of Alpha Fiduciaries' Global Tactical Multi Asset Class Strategies of investing. The GTMAC strategies serve as the platform basis for which Alpha Fiduciary has been successful in helping its clients achieve superior returns with lower total volatility.

 

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